Pair #1461

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 29801

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1381

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish — a player can lead R1 and then fall well outside the top 10. A top 10 finish does not require having led after R1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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