Pair #1460

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 29801

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 of the Valspar Championship (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour major. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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