Pair #1457

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 29801

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 424500

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:49Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament — a player can lead R1 and then fall back. Winning the tournament does not require leading after R1 either. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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