Pair #1454

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-KBRA

Valspar Championship: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 9718

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Keegan Bradley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:49Z

Reasoning: A top 20 finish at the Valspar Championship (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour major. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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