Pair #145

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26DNJOKU-DEN

What will be David Njoku's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-09-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10792

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Njoku's next team is Denver before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: David Njoku signing with Denver has no logical bearing on Denver holding the 1st overall draft pick. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 92
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -8.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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