Pair #1446

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1618

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:26Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 10 at the Valspar are entirely independent events. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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