Pair #1444

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RHOJ

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 704

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 480

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rasmus Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:26Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -61.87% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -66.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue