Pair #144

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26DNJOKU-DEN

What will be David Njoku's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-09-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 10792

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If David Njoku's next team is Denver before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: David Njoku signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor does winning the division require Njoku to have signed there. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 92
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -69.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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