Pair #1434

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4957

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 480

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:07Z

Reasoning: If Hojgaard leads after Round 1, he has completed Round 1 and will almost certainly make the cut — in fact, the leader after Round 1 necessarily plays Round 2 and would need an extraordinary collapse to miss the cut. More precisely, leading after Round 1 means he has the lowest score; barring disqualification, the leader after R1 will make the cut. This is a logical necessity under normal tournament rules.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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