Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-RHOJ
Will Rasmus Hojgaard lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4957
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rasmus Hojgaard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-VAC26-RHOJ
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the Valspar Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12900
YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rasmus Hojgaard wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:07Z
Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not necessitate winning the tournament — he could fall back in later rounds. And winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1 — he could come from behind.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A