Pair #1431

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1618

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1209

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:07Z

Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse is not true — a top 20 finish does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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