Pair #143

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26ABROWN-DEN

What will be A.J. Brown's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 26664

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If A.J. Brown's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2288873

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: A player signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does winning require any specific player. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -11.70% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 171
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -16.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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