Pair #1429

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1209

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 480

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.3400
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:27:07Z

Reasoning: If Hojgaard finishes top 20, he must have made the cut to play the final rounds. You cannot finish top 20 without making the cut. The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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