Pair #1427

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHOJ

Valspar Championship: Will Rasmus Hojgaard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1209

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RHOJ

Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rasmus Hojgaard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 967685

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rasmus Hojgaard wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar and winning the Masters are completely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0010
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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