Pair #1423

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 796

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:46Z

Reasoning: Making the cut at the Valspar (a non-major) and winning a PGA major are independent events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -66.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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