Pair #1421

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1643

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-CCON

Will Corey Conners win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 999253

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:46Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major tournament. Winning it does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -4.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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