Pair #1414

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CCON

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1617

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0300

Rules

If Corey Conners wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16609

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:26Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Finishing top 5 there has no logical connection to winning a PGA Tour Major in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -31.65% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -35.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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