Pair #1412

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-CCON

Will Corey Conners win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 999253

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16609

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:26Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship means finishing 1st, which is within the top 5. Therefore winning implies top 5. However, finishing top 5 does not imply winning (could finish 2nd–5th).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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