Pair #1408

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 796

YES ask: 0.9200
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.7700

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Rules

If Corey Conners makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-CCON

Will Corey Conners lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47850

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Corey Conners is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:26Z

Reasoning: If Conners leads after Round 1, he is in the field and will unambiguously make the cut (the leader after Round 1 is always well within the cut line). The cut is made after Round 2, but a Round 1 leader would need an extraordinary collapse to miss; however, strictly speaking there is no absolute logical necessity since a Round 2 collapse is theoretically possible. Reconsidering: leading R1 does NOT logically necessitate making the cut — a player could shoot a very high score in R2. Setting to none.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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