Pair #1404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15769

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17186

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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