Pair #14

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 15557

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXMOMEN-26-MED

Will Daniil Medvedev win the ATP Miami Open?

Series: KXMOMEN
Entity: Daniil Medvedev
Expiration: 2026-03-29T19:30:00Z
Volume: 2694

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Daniil Medvedev wins the 2026 ATP Miami Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:46Z

Reasoning: The Miami Open and the French Open are completely separate tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -23.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T09:53:55Z

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