Pair #1399

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 16609

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-CCON

Valspar Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17186

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:26:05Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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