Pair #1391

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TMOO

Valspar Championship: Will Taylor Moore finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Taylor Moore
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2682

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Moore finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-TMOO

Valspar Championship: Will Taylor Moore finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Taylor Moore
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8886

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Taylor Moore finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:25:46Z

Reasoning: If Moore finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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