Pair #139

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1318

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:16Z

Reasoning: Alec Pierce signing with Denver has no logical bearing on whether Denver holds the 1st overall draft pick, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -6.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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