Pair #138

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1318

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Alec Pierce joining Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -41.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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