Pair #138

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26APIERCE-DEN

What will be Alec Pierce's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1318

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alec Pierce's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 37923

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Alec Pierce joining Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -49.44% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0141 est. fees
Days to maturity: 138
Hurdle yield: 4.42%
Excess yield: -53.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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