Pair #1365

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JBRI

Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 45822

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JBRI

Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 82015

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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