Pair #1362

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-JBRI

Valspar Championship: Will Jacob Bridgeman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 82015

YES ask: 0.6000
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JBRI

Will Jacob Bridgeman win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jacob Bridgeman
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 5694716

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jacob Bridgeman wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:41Z

Reasoning: These are entirely different tournaments. Neither outcome logically necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4210
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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