Pair #136

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7152

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLDRAFT1ST-26-1-DEN

Will Denver make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft?

Series: KXNFLDRAFT1ST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-24T14:00:00Z
Volume: 4968

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is the team to make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Maxx Crosby joining Denver has no logical connection to Denver holding the 1st overall draft pick. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 184
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -6.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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