Pair #1353

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-PROD

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6450

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-PROD

Valspar Championship: Will Patrick Rodgers finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Rodgers
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6752

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Rodgers finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:23Z

Reasoning: A top 10 finish is necessarily also a top 20 finish. A top 20 finish does not necessitate a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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