Pair #135

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26MCROSBY-DEN

What will be Maxx Crosby's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 7152

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maxx Crosby's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCWEST-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC West Division?

Series: KXNFLAFCWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 29426

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC West Division, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Maxx Crosby joining Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the AFC West, nor vice versa. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -41.64% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3100
Days to maturity: 183
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -45.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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