Pair #1343

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3442

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, which is a separate non-major event. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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