Pair #1342

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 244

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3442

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish — a player can make the cut and finish outside the top 10. Top 10 does imply making the cut, but that direction is B→A, and B is the top 10 event. So top 10 finishing implies making the cut, meaning KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPEN implies KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MPEN.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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