Pair #134

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1214

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2194921

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Stefon Diggs signing with Denver does not logically necessitate a Super Bowl win, nor does winning the Super Bowl require Diggs to be on the team. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 183
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -15.25% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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