Pair #1339

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 736952

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship is not a major. Winning the Valspar does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply winning the Valspar. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -13.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -17.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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