Pair #1338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 736952

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

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Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 244

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: To win the Valspar Championship, Penge must make the cut and play all rounds. Winning necessarily means he made the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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