Pair #1337

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3442

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:24:07Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship — they are separate tournaments. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.2110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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