Pair #1332

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2844

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a major. Winning a major also does not imply finishing top 5 at the Valspar. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -59.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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