Pair #1329

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2844

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4610
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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