Pair #1327

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5484

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:46Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 at the Valspar (not a major) has no logical connection to winning a major tournament. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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