Pair #1322

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3442

YES ask: 0.8200
NO ask: 0.2100
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7756

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:46Z

Reasoning: If Penge finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20 as well (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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