Pair #1321

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7756

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar Championship (not a major) does not imply winning a major, and winning a major does not imply finishing top 20 at the Valspar. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9400
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue