Pair #1320

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7756

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 244

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:27Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires having made the cut (players who miss the cut cannot finish in the top 20). Making the cut does not guarantee finishing top 20.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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