Pair #1317

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2844

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MPEN

Valspar Championship: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7756

YES ask: 0.9400
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:27Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 (including ties) necessarily means finishing top 20 (including ties). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not require top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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