Pair #1314

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ARAI

Valspar Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6205

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1958921

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:27Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.7810
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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