Pair #131

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4516

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Denver before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXSB-27-DEN

Will Denver win the 2027 Pro Football Championship?

Series: KXSB
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-14T23:30:00Z
Volume: 2288873

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:02:00Z

Reasoning: Tyreek Hill signing with Denver does not logically necessitate Denver winning the Super Bowl, nor does Denver winning the Super Bowl require Hill to be on the roster. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -10.04% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: -14.35% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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