Pair #1306

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ARAI

Will Aaron Rai lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5543

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ARAI

Valspar Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1399

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Rai finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 finish, and finishing top 5 does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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