Pair #13053

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATP-26UMAG-COB

Will Flavio Cobolli win the ATP Umag?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Flavio Cobolli
Expiration: 2026-08-08T18:00:00Z
Volume: 779

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Flavio Cobolli wins the 2026 ATP Umag professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATP-26USO-COB

Will Flavio Cobolli win the US Open Men's Singles?

Series: KXATP
Entity: Flavio Cobolli
Expiration: 2026-09-14T05:00:00Z
Volume: 1712

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Flavio Cobolli wins the 2026 US Open Men's Singles professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning the US Open doesn't require or guarantee winning the separate Umag tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.7500 + ~$0.0142 est. fees
Days to maturity: 23
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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