Pair #1305

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ARAI

Valspar Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6205

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ARAI

Valspar Championship: Will Aaron Rai finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Rai
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5575

YES ask: 0.5400
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Aaron Rai finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:23:10Z

Reasoning: If Rai finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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