Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-RMCI
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 714
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR2TOP10-THOC26-RMCI
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 2?
Series: KXPGAR2TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-17T16:00:00Z
Volume: 518
YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) after the first 2 rounds of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: A top-5 finish in Round 1 doesn't guarantee a top-10 cumulative finish after Round 2.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
N/A
Cost:
$1.2100
+ ~$0.0264 est. fees
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A