Pair #13046

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 414

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-15T08:01:51Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 doesn't require having been top 10 after Round 1 due to possible comeback.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $0.7900 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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